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Huang Wentao of China CITIC Construction Investment Co., Ltd. and others: It is estimated that deficit ratio will rise to over 4% in 2025, and it is expected that the stock and debt will continue. On December 9th, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee held a meeting to analyze and study the economic work in 2025. Huang Wentao, chief economist of CITIC Jiantou, and Liu Tianyu, macro analyst of CITIC Jiantou, believe that the policy tone of this Politburo meeting is quite proactive, which shows that the central government has made a full assessment and policy reserve for the pressures and risks that may be encountered in economic development next year, which has strongly echoed the expectations of economic entities. Huang Wentao and Liu Tianyu pointed out that GDP growth in the fourth quarter is expected to reach more than 5.2%, achieving the expected goal of annual economic growth of around 5%. On this basis, the annual growth target of about 5% will also be the basic premise of policy discussion in the next few years. Since the fourth quarter of this year, the fiscal policy has been continuously overweight. This time, the fiscal policy is set to be "more active", which indicates that the fiscal policy will expand again. It is estimated that deficit ratio will increase to over 4% in 2025. Both stocks and debts are expected to continue. Unconventional countercyclical adjustment policies not only provide sufficient impetus for the recovery of economic vitality, but also provide strong support for improving expectations and reviving confidence, and provide sufficient source of living water for the capital market. The stock market is expected to continue to strengthen and the risk-free rate of return is expected to continue to decline.Tongliao, Inner Mongolia: Support the use of provident fund balance to pay the down payment for house purchase. On December 9, Tongliao Housing Provident Fund Center of Inner Mongolia issued the Notice on Optimizing and Adjusting the Use Policy of Housing Provident Fund. The document proposes to increase the calculation amount of housing provident fund loans. Before the adjustment, it was "the amount of housing provident fund loan application does not exceed 20 times the balance of the account", and after the adjustment, it was "the amount of provident fund loan does not exceed 25 times the balance of the provident fund account", which will be implemented as of the date of issuing the notice. At the same time, support the use of provident fund balance to pay the down payment for house purchase. Support depositors to withdraw the balance of housing provident fund as the down payment for the purchase of newly-built self-occupied housing, that is, after the purchaser and the development enterprise sign the proposed purchase contract (agreement), they can apply for withdrawing the balance of housing provident fund account to pay the down payment for the purchase, which will be implemented from December 20. Tongliao will also adjust the maximum age for employees to repay loans. According to "Measures of the State Council on Gradually Delaying the Statutory Retirement Age", the term of individual housing loans for housing provident fund will be extended to 68 years for men and 63 years for women, or to 5 years after the statutory retirement age of depositors, with the longest loan term not exceeding 30 years. This policy will be implemented as of January 1, 2025.Allianz's investment in the national pension was approved. It was learned from the national pension that the State Financial Supervision and Administration recently officially approved the change of the registered capital of the National Pension Insurance Co., Ltd. and added Allianz Investment Co., Ltd. as a shareholder of the company. (CSI Taurus)

It is said that Li Zhenyu, senior vice president of Baidu Group, left his post. According to media reports, Li Zhenyu, senior vice president of Baidu Group, assistant to CEO and former general manager of intelligent driving business group, has left his post. At present, no personal information can be found in the internal system. Sina Technology asked Baidu Group about this. As of press time, there is no official response. (Sina Technology)Allianz's investment in the national pension was approved. It was learned from the national pension that the State Financial Supervision and Administration recently officially approved the change of the registered capital of the National Pension Insurance Co., Ltd. and added Allianz Investment Co., Ltd. as a shareholder of the company. (CSI Taurus)AUD/USD fell in the short term, and the intraday decline expanded to 0.8%, after the Reserve Bank of Australia announced its interest rate decision.

The investment of Shanghai private equity venture capital industry in the first three quarters was 45.947 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 50%. On December 10th, at the 17th Bund Finance Shanghai International Equity Investment Forum, the development report of Shanghai private equity venture capital industry in 2024 was officially released. According to the report, in the first three quarters of 2024, there were 327 investments in Shanghai private equity venture capital industry, a year-on-year decrease of 47%; The total investment was 45.947 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 50%. All rounds of financing activities have decreased, especially the A+ round, B round, D round and private placement round. The report also shows that in the first three quarters of 2024, the total amount of investment subscribed by Shanghai LP was about 67 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.61%; A total of 301 LPs were invested, a year-on-year decrease of 50.25%.Sichuan Luqiao established a new building materials company, and the enterprise search APP showed that recently, Sichuan Jiaojian Building Materials Co., Ltd. was established, with Qu Hong as the legal representative and a registered capital of 5 million yuan. Its business scope includes: sales of building materials; Non-metallic minerals and products sales; Manufacturing of nonmetallic mineral products; Metal ore sales, etc. Enterprise survey shows that the company is indirectly wholly-owned by Sichuan Luqiao.AliExpress has held nearly 100 investment promotion meetings in Zhejiang, Guangdong, Jiangsu and other places. AliExpress has prepared a number of measures such as traffic and freight reduction for new merchants, and held nearly 100 investment promotion meetings in Zhejiang, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong and other places in a month, attracting merchants from factories and industries to join. In addition, this year's "Black Five" is not over yet. Before double 11, the trend of "anti-involution" of e-commerce spread to cross-border circles, and AliExpress launched a series of policies to actively intercept and control the "refund only" and wool party that troubled businesses. (Interface News)